沧东断裂带兴济1井水位动态特征及其映震能力研究

整理和分析兴济1井的静水位观测以来的水位和气压观测资料,发现该井水位线性下降趋势明显,存在峰谷形式的年变周期,滑动速度分析显示出一定的异常信息;数据散点图显示水位观测结果受固体潮影响大,滑动分析显示固体潮规律畸变时可能存在前兆信息;主要的异常前兆表现形式为水位的下降方向脉冲,可能与井址附近区域或者井址北东方向的天津和唐山老震区相关断裂带上的地震活动有关.     

Using Strategic Foresight to Assess Conservation Opportunity

The nature of conservation challenges can foster a reactive, rather than proactive approach to decision making. Failure to anticipate problems before they escalate results in the need for more costly and time‐consuming solutions. Proactive conservation requires forward‐looking approaches to decision making that consider possible futures without being overly constrained by the past. Strategic foresight provides a structured process for considering the most desirable future and for mapping the most efficient and effective approaches to promoting that future with tools that facilitate creative thinking. The process involves 6 steps: setting the scope, collecting inputs, analyzing signals, interpreting the information, determining how to act, and implementing the outcomes. Strategic foresight is ideal for seeking, recognizing, and realizing conservation opportunities because it explicitly encourages a broad‐minded, forward‐looking perspective on an issue. Despite its potential value, the foresight process is rarely used to address conservation issues, and previous attempts have generally failed to influence policy. We present the strategic foresight process as it can be used for proactive conservation planning, describing some of the key tools in the foresight tool kit and how they can be used to identify and exploit different types of conservation opportunities. Scanning is an important tool for collecting and organizing diverse streams of information and can be used to recognize new opportunities and those that could be created. Scenario planning explores how current trends, drivers of change, and key uncertainties might influence the future and can be used to identify barriers to opportunities. Backcasting is used to map out a path to a goal and can determine how to remove barriers to opportunities. We highlight how the foresight process was used to identify conservation opportunities during the development of a strategic plan to address climate change in New York State. The plan identified solutions that should be effective across a range of possible futures. Illustrating the application of strategic foresight to identify conservation opportunities should provide the impetus for decision makers to explore strategic foresight as a way to support more proactive conservation policy, planning, and management.     

Addressing challenges for future strategic‐level emergency management: reframing,networking, and capacity‐building

The mounting frequency and intensity of natural hazards, alongside growing interdependencies between social‐technical and ecological systems, are placing increased pressure on emergency management. This is particularly true at the strategic level of emergency management, which involves planning for and managing non‐routine, high‐consequence events. Drawing on the literature, a survey, and interviews and workshops with Australia's senior emergency managers, this paper presents an analysis of five core challenges that these pressures are creating for strategic‐level emergency management. It argues that emphasising ‘emergency management’ as a primary adaptation strategy is a retrograde step that ignores the importance of addressing socio‐political drivers of vulnerabilities. Three key suggestions are presented that could assist the country's strategic‐level emergency management in tackling these challenges: (i) reframe emergency management as a component of disaster risk reduction rather than them being one and the same; (ii) adopt a network governance approach; and (iii) further develop the capacities of strategic‐level emergency managers.     

Na_2SO_4-MgSO_4-(NH_4)_2SO_4-H_2O四元体系相图研究及其应用

根据不同温度下Na_2SO_4-MgSO_4-(NH_4)_2SO_4-H_2O四元体系相图的绘制,分析了该四元体系相图受温度影响的相图特征,设计了以硫酸铵为盐析剂加工分离白钠镁矾的最佳生产工艺。新工艺具有反应时间短,操作简单,可以生产得到氮镁复肥和无水硫酸钠等优点。此工艺对于克服白钠镁矾的加工分离困难,实现白钠镁矾资源的综合开发和利用具有重要的现实意义。     

江苏沿海开发与城市化协同发展研究

2009年江苏沿海开发上升为国家战略，江苏沿海地区城市化已站在新的起点上。阐述了江苏沿海城市化的发展状况，指出了在沿海开发过程中城市化发展存在的问题，提出了江苏沿海开发与城市化协同发展的战略思考。     

山东省产业政策战略环境评价

战略环境影响评价(StrategicEnvironmentalAssessment,简称SEA)是环境影响评价在战略决策层次上的应用,是实现可持续发展战略的重要手段。首先阐述了产业政策SEA的内涵,分析论述了产业政策对环境的影响和山东省产业政策SEA的必要性,建立了山东省产业政策SEA的理论基础,最后提出了山东省产业政策SEA的初步研究框架。     

战略环境评价指标体系框架研究——以流域规划为例

《规划环境影响评价技术导则》（试行）对规划环境影响评价的实践给出了指导,但作为规划环境评价对象之一的流域规划,该导则目前还没有给出其环境影响评价的指标体系。依照DPSIR框架的思路,初步建立了流域规划环境影响评价指标集。但DPSIR框架也不是很完善,因其对因果关系简化过多,难以了解复杂的现实因果关系,所以要达到真实的综合环境评价,需要对现实指标的关系进行深入的研究,需要改进DPSIR思路。     

基于MATLAB GUI的土壤质地类型自动识别系统

土壤质地类型反映了不同粒径颗粒在土壤中的分布,是土壤的最基本性质之一,直接影响土壤中水、气、热和溶质的迁移特征,因此确定土壤质地类型是土壤调查中最基础的工作。我国常用的土壤质地分类标准有美国制、国际制、卡庆斯基制和中国制标准,其中美国制和国际制土壤质地分类需借助平面三角坐标系来确定,不利于批量土壤样品的土壤质地分类。现有的土壤质地自动分类系统中缺少基于卡庆斯基制、中国制的分类功能,且难以直接处理激光粒度仪的测试结果。为能够批量自动实现土壤质地分类并便于不同分类制结果的对比,基于MATLAB GUI开发了土壤质地类型自动识别系统(GSTARS)。该系统界面直观、操作方便,能够批量处理土壤颗粒测试数据和多种格式数据文件,且数据处理容量大;该系统包含了4种国内应用最广的土壤质地分类标准,增加了系统的适用性,便于不同分类制分类结果的对比。与现有土壤质地分类工具的结果对比,表明本系统的分类结果可靠。     

半圆形凸起地形对SH波的散射与地震动 --有多个浅埋圆孔情形

采用"契合"的思想,给出了地下多个孔洞与地面上的半圆形凸起地形对SH波散射问题的解答.将整个求解区域分割成两部分来处理,其一为包括半圆形凸起地形在内的一个圆形区域I,其余为区域Ⅱ.在区域Ⅰ中,构造了一个上半部边界应力为零,而其余部分位移、应力任意的驻波解;在区域Ⅱ中,构造了半圆形凹陷和浅埋圆孔的散射波,且要求它满足水平界面上应力为零的约束条件.然后再通过移动坐标,满足"公共边界"的"契合"条件和地下孔洞的边界条件,建立起求解该问题的无穷代数方程组.最后,给出了分析例题和数值结果,并对地表位移幅值进行了讨论.     

高速铁路列车运行冲突管理研究现状综述

在定义高速铁路列车运行冲突的基础上,分析列车运行冲突的产生机理,从4个不同角度对列车运行冲突进行分类。归纳并分析列车运行冲突管理的研究历程及国内外对列车运行冲突管理问题研究的现状。分析表明,国内外对列车运行管理的研究主要是依托列车运行图优化和调度指挥系统开发而进行的,对列车运行冲突管理的专门和系统研究尚缺,没有适合我国国情和路情的高速铁路列车运行冲突管理体系。指出冲突分析、冲突化解和基于冲突管理的列车运行调整方法及运行图优化技术等问题是我国高速铁路冲突管理的主要内涵,将时变性、冲突可蔓延性、分割管理和复杂性等归结为高速铁路冲突管理的特点。